At a Glance:

• Total mortgage originations totaled an estimated 1.44 million in Q4 2025, marking the largest quarterly total since Q3 2022.
• Refinancing made up nearly 40% of all mortgage lending in Q4 2025. 
• Typical Q4 rate‑and‑term refinances reduced payments by around $248 per month.
• In February 2026, about 5.4 million mortgage holders had rates at least 0.75% above the market average.

Refinance activity rose sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025 as mortgage rates steadied and market conditions became more predictable. According to market data from ICE Mortgage Technology, total mortgage originations reached an estimated 1.44 million in Q4, with refinances accounting for nearly 40% of that volume.¹ While these trends reflect year‑end activity, several underlying factors continue to influence early‑2026 conditions as the spring market approaches.

The same dataset shows that roughly 5.4 million mortgage holders currently have rates at least 0.75% higher than today’s averages — the largest such rate‑gap segment since early 2022. ² This group reflects borrowing that occurred during higher‑rate periods and remains an influential component of today’s market landscape.

"The fourth quarter of 2025 brought a more predictable rate backdrop, which helped support purchase activity and created a natural opening for many existing homeowners to reassess their financing," Brett Hively, Senior Vice President, Mortgage Capital Markets and Financial Strategist at Ameris Bank.

Rate Stability Shaped Borrower Decisions

 Throughout Q4, 30‑year conforming mortgage rates generally held in the low‑6% range.³ This consistency gave many buyers and homeowners clearer timing for making year‑end decisions. 

“The stability in rates late last year allowed many buyers to better time their decisions,” Hively said. “In several markets, we also saw less competition and more motivated sellers, which created better conditions heading into year‑end.”

Refinance activity reflected these conditions. Market data shows that homeowners who completed rate‑and‑term refinances in Q4 typically carried balances near $510,000 and saw estimated monthly payment reductions of approximately $248.⁴ Borrowers with loans originated during earlier higher‑rate periods were especially active as the rate environment smoothed out.

As of March 9, the OBMMI 30‑year conforming rate stood at 6.083%.⁵ With key economic releases on the horizon — including CPI, Existing Home Sales, Jobless Claims, and Housing Starts — modest movement in rates remains possible as the official start of spring approaches on March 20. 

“These indicators will shape how rates behave as the spring season begins,” Hively said. “Staying informed will help buyers and current homeowners navigate the market with confidence.”

Sources:

^{1, 2, 3, 4}https://mortgagetech.ice.com/publicdocs/mortgage/imt-march-2026-mortgage-monitor-report-Att67-34KQ.pdf

⁵https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Ameris Bank does not endorse nor is affiliated with the companies listed in this article.