At a Glance:

• National pending home sales declined 0.8% in January 2026 compared to December.
• Year-over-year, pending sales increased in the South and West but declined in the Northeast and Midwest.
• The Midwest (+5.0%) and West (+4.3%) posted month-over-month gains, while the Northeast (-5.7%) and South (-4.5%) saw seasonal pullbacks.
• The average 30-year conforming mortgage rate fell to 5.945% as of February 23.

As the housing market transitions from winter into early spring, contract activity offers an early look at buyer engagement. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales report for January showed a 0.8% month-over-month decline.¹

Pending home sales are based on signed contracts for existing homes. Because transactions typically close within one to two months, this data serves as a forward-looking indicator of potential closing activity.

Regional Trends Highlight Continued Engagement

 While national activity edged lower compared to December, regional results were mixed. The Midwest experienced a 5.0% increase in pending sales, and the West rose 4.3% month over month.² 

On a year-over-year basis, pending sales increased in both the South and West, while the Northeast and Midwest recorded annual declines.³ This variation underscores how housing conditions continue to differ by region, with several markets showing sustained engagement compared to early 2025.

The Northeast and South recorded month-over-month declines of 5.7% and 4.5%, respectively.⁴ Short-term monthly shifts are common during winter months and often reflect seasonal timing rather than broader structural change.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which measures contract signings, registered 70.9 on February 19.⁵ Historically, pending sales activity tends to strengthen during the spring months as listing activity increases and buyer engagement builds.

"Home sales are generally slow during January," said Brett Hively, Senior Vice President, Mortgage Capital Markets and Financial Strategist at Ameris Bank.. "The natural slowdown that follows the holiday season and colder weather often tempers activity at the start of the year. Regional trends this month suggest engagement remains steady in several markets as we move toward the spring season.”

The Impact of Winter Storm Fern on Home Sales

January’s contract activity may also have been influenced by Winter Storm Fern, which brought significant snow and ice to portions of the central and eastern United States late in the month. While January is usually a slow month for home sales, the recent winter storm further impacted this trend. Severe weather can temporarily delay showings, inspections, appraisals, and in some cases contract signings, which may shift activity into subsequent reporting periods.

We previously reviewed the storm’s impact on listing activity and inventory trends earlier this month.

Financing Conditions Improve Ahead of Spring

 Financing conditions have improved as the market approaches spring. Mortgage rates moved lower in the second half of February, with the average 30-year conforming rate falling to 5.945% as of Monday, February 23.⁶

Lower rates can reduce monthly payments and modestly improve purchasing power, helping support engagement as contract activity builds.

“If interest rates remain stable as we move into spring, that stability could help support continued engagement,” Hively added.

Sources:

^{1, 2, 3, 4, 5}https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-0-8-decrease-in-january

⁶https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Ameris Bank does not endorse nor is affiliated with the companies listed in this article.