At a Glance:

 

• Two major indices show slower year-over-year home price growth: 1.9% and 2.9%.
• This marks the slowest year-over-year price increase since the summer of 2023.
• House prices increased in 46 states from Q2 2024 to Q2 2025.
• The median price of an existing home sale in the US in June was $432,700.

Two major housing indices released August 26 show a cooling in home price growth. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index rose 1.9% year-over-year in June.¹ Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) reported a 2.9% increase compared to the same period last year.² These are the slowest annual gains since mid-2023.³

“After years of double-digit growth, this kind of moderation is expected,” said Brett Hively, Senior Vice President and Mortgage Capital Markets and Financial Strategist at Ameris Bank. “It’s not a downturn, but it is a bit of a recalibration. Buyers are still active, but they’re more price-sensitive, and sellers are adjusting accordingly.”

The median price of an existing home sale in June was $432,700, according to the National Association of Realtors.⁴

Potential factors behind the shift in the housing market

From June 2024 to June 2025, the Consumer Price Index increased by 2.7%,⁵ while national home prices increased by just 2.9% according to FHFA data. That’s a narrow gap—especially compared to prior years when home prices consistently outpaced inflation.

This shift matters because it signals a change in how housing fits into the broader cost-of-living picture. When home prices grow only slightly faster than inflation—or even fall behind in some regions—it can affect buyer behavior in subtle but important ways.

“Buyers may not be comparing inflation charts to home price indices, but they feel the impact,” Hively said. “We’re seeing longer decision timelines, more interest in affordability programs, and a shift toward homes that fit tighter budgets.”

Regional snapshot

Despite a national slowdown in price growth, FHFA’s data showed 46 states posted home price increases in Q2 2025.⁶ FHFA data shows varied home price growth across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, with several states tracking outpacing the national average: 
 

• Virginia: 3.76%
• South Carolina: 3.18%
• Maryland: 3.15%
• Tennessee: 3.00%
• Alabama: 2.96%
• North Carolina: 2.28%
• Georgia: 1.25%
• Florida: –1.39%

What to watch

Seasonal slowdowns are typical as summer ends, and broader economic factors may also play a role. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17 could influence mortgage rates, which in turn affect homebuying activity.⁷

“Rate movement does not just affect affordability. It affects timing,” said Hively. “Even a hint of change can shift buyer urgency or stall listings. That is why we monitor rate trends closely.”

Affordability remains the central tension in today’s market. When rates fall, buying power improves, which can draw more buyers in, even as rising demand may begin to lift prices again. It’s a dynamic that makes rate and price trends worth watching together this fall.


Sources:
¹ https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20250826-1479705/1479705_cshomeprice-release-0826.pdf
^{2, 6} https://www.fhfa.gov/document/fhfa-house-price-index-report-2025q2
³ https://www.realtor.com/news/real-estate-news/existing-home-sales-report-nar-july-2025/
⁴ https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/mortgage-rates-decline-but-median-home-prices-rise-in-june-2024
⁵ https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
⁷ https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Ameris Bank does not endorse nor is affiliated with the companies listed in this article.