At a Glance:

• National pending home sales dipped 0.4% month-over-month, signaling a modest slowdown.¹
• Regional performance varied: declines in the Midwest and Northeast, stability in the South, and gains in the West.²
• Pending home sales increased 0.7% year-over-year.³
• Mortgage rates hit their lowest point of 2025 in early September, averaging 6.322% for 30-year conforming loans - a shift that could influence buyer activity in the weeks ahead.⁴
• Buyer sentiment remains cautious, shaped by economic uncertainty and seasonal factors.

The latest pending home sales data from the National Association of Realtors points to a slight deceleration in buyer activity, with contract signings down 0.4% from the prior month. While the South held steady and the West posted modest gains, the Midwest and Northeast saw declines—underscoring the uneven nature of today’s housing market.

Pending home sales represent signed contracts that haven’t yet closed — typically a 30- to 60-day lead indicator of future transaction volume. As one of the earliest signals of buyer momentum, this metric offers valuable insight into how market conditions are influencing consumer behavior in real time.

This context helps explain the latest data, which points to a moment of recalibration among buyers, especially in regions facing affordability or inventory challenges.

Brett Hively, Senior Vice President and Mortgage Capital Markets and Financial Strategist at Ameris Bank, sees buyers taking a more deliberate approach.

“We’re seeing more people delay decisions—not because they’re out of the market, but because they’re watching rates, inventory, and pricing trends more closely than ever,” Hively said.

Rate Movement and Regional Trends Shape Fall Outlook

Despite the month-over-month dip, pending sales remain up 0.7% compared to the same period last year, indicating a resilient housing market despite summer fluctuations.⁵ The Midwest and South continue to show resilience, suggesting that affordability and inventory dynamics in those regions may be supporting buyer engagement.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates have shifted meaningfully in recent weeks. As of September 5, the average 30-year conforming rate fell to 6.322% — the lowest level of 2025.⁶ 

“We’re in a window of opportunity,” Hively said. “Rates have eased, and that could bring some buyers off the sidelines, especially those who’ve been waiting for a more favorable entry point.”

Looking Ahead

With rates easing and regional trends diverging, the housing market enters September with mixed signals. While July’s dip in pending sales reflects seasonal cooling, the recent rate movement could prompt renewed buyer engagement in the short term. Agents and lenders will be watching closely to see whether early fall brings a measurable shift in activity — or simply more recalibration.


Sources:
^{1, 2, 3, 5} https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-0-4-decrease-in-july
^{4, 6} https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Ameris Bank does not endorse nor is affiliated with the companies listed in this article.