At a Glance:

• The holiday season typically sees slower housing activity, but 2025 may be an exception.
• Weekly purchase applications are up 31% year-over-year, and pending sales are showing strong growth.
• Inventory is declining seasonally, but remains higher than last year, creating a more balanced market.
• Mortgage rates have eased slightly, and spreads are improving—potentially supporting more buyer activity.

The holiday season is often associated with a slowdown in real estate activity. Fewer listings, travel schedules, and year-end distractions typically lead to reduced buyer engagement. However, recent market signals suggest that 2025 may be an exception.

Momentum Builds After a Slow Spring

Spring home sales were notably slower this year, largely due to elevated mortgage rates and affordability concerns.¹ But as rates began easing in late summer, buyer interest started to rebound. According to the National Realtors Association, September saw a 1.5% increase in existing home sales month-over-month, and a 4.1% increase in sales year-over-year.²

That momentum has continued into the fall season. In the first week of November, purchase applications rose 3% from the prior week and were 31% higher than the same time last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.³ 

“We’re seeing a healthier balance between supply and demand than we did last fall,” said Brett Hively, EVP of Mortgage Services at Ameris Bank. “Inventory is still tight, but the year-over-year growth gives buyers more breathing room. That’s helping drive activity even as we head into the holidays.”

Inventory and Listings Trends

While inventory is declining seasonally, it remains higher than last year. New listings are also trending upward, with 55,481 homes listed in early November— up 13.5% compared to the same week in 2024.⁴ This increase, paired with improvement in mortgage rates, is contributing to a more buyer-friendly environment.

“Seasonal timing plays a bigger role than most people realize,” Hively added. “We often see a dip in listings and showings during late November, followed by a modest rebound in early December as people look to wrap up transactions before year-end.”

Looking Ahead

The Federal Reserve’s next meeting on December 9–10 could influence mortgage rates heading into 2026. A recent Reuters survey found that most economists anticipate a rate cut in response to weakening labor market data.⁵ If that happens, it could further stimulate buyer activity and support a stronger-than-usual winter market.


Sources:
¹ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/us-real-estate-market-high-prices-mortgage-rates-hamper-spring-home-selling
² https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-5-increase-in-september
³ https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2025/11/12/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey
⁴ https://www.housingwire.com/national-single-family-new-listings/
⁵ https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-cut-rates-again-december-weakening-job-market-say-most-economists-2025-11-12/


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Ameris Bank does not endorse nor is affiliated with the companies listed in this article.