At a Glance:

• As of December 8, mortgage rates remain near their lowest levels of 2025.
• Inventory is elevated compared to last year, offering buyers more options.
• Seasonal factors and holiday timing may influence buyer activity and negotiation strategies.
• The Federal Reserve’s December meeting is drawing attention, but mortgage rates often move independently of Fed decisions.

As the holiday season unfolds, the housing market is offering a mix of opportunity and uncertainty. Mortgage rates remain near their lowest levels of the year, inventory is elevated, and economic signals—including the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting—are influencing decisions as 2025 draws to a close. Here’s what’s shaping the market and what it could mean for buyers and sellers.

Mortgage Rates are at Their Lowest Levels of 2025

After trending downward since October, mortgage rates have stabilized near their lowest point of 2025. As of December 8, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.21%.¹ 

“Several factors have contributed to this decline, including cooling inflation and investor expectations for future Federal Reserve policy,” said Brett Hively, Senior Vice President and Mortgage Capital Markets and Financial Strategist at Ameris Bank.

Lower borrowing costs can improve affordability, especially for buyers who have been waiting for a more favorable entry point. Hively emphasized that favorable interest rates could stimulate existing home sales in December. For homeowners considering refinancing, these conditions may also present an opportunity, though individual circumstances should guide decisions.

Inventory Levels Offer More Choices

While winter typically brings a slowdown in listings, this year’s inventory tells a different story. National single-family inventory is up 15.68% year-over-year, giving buyers more options and reducing competitive pressure.²

This increase reflects a combination of factors: sellers adjusting to market conditions, new construction entering the pipeline, and regional variations in demand. For buyers, more inventory can mean greater negotiating power and less urgency compared to the frenzied pace of previous years.

“We are witnessing a steady flow of properties available on the market, which could influence pricing trends and competition among buyers in December and when we enter 2026,” said Hively.

For sellers, elevated inventory means pricing strategy and home presentation are more important than ever.

Fed Meeting and Market Expectations

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is drawing attention as markets anticipate another benchmark rate cut.³ However, it’s important to understand that mortgage rates don’t always move in lockstep with Fed decisions.

“The market anticipates another cut by the Fed, but that may not translate to lower mortgage rates in the near term,” said Hively.

Mortgage rates are influenced by broader market factors. Because of this, explained Hively, "mortgage rates often move directionally before a Fed rate decision is made and can move inversely when a cut occurs."

For buyers and sellers, this means focusing on overall affordability and timing rather than waiting for a single policy change.


Sources:
¹ https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi
² https://www.housingwire.com/articles/december-housing-trends-2026/
³ https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Ameris Bank does not endorse nor is affiliated with the companies listed in this article.